We are a proud member of the Financial Services Online network!
Connect with us on your favourite social media platform for the latest financial news, views, tips, tricks, resources and information.
Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends
Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends
The financial community widely expects the RBA to keep the cash rate stable during this session, a forecast deemed straightforward in light of the recent federal budget. However, CBA's latest insights suggest the easing cycle—initially anticipated to alleviate strained mortgage holders—will be postponed due to prevailing uncertainties surrounding inflation forecasts.
Gareth Aird, CBA's head of Australian economics, indicated that recent labor market data shows little motivation for the RBA to alter its policy direction. According to Aird, the current state of the labor market, characterized by a "loosening" at essential levels, supports a prediction that the RBA will maintain the cash rate unchanged.
"Both trend unemployment and underemployment are experiencing a gradual upward trajectory," Aird stated in the latest CBA Economics update. "Work hours are declining, and job advertisements show a discernible downward trend."
Highlighting these labor market dynamics, Aird elaborated, "Our expectation for a more significant loosening in the labor market, which varies from the RBA’s forecasts, is a principal reason why we foresee the commencement of an easing cycle in late 2024. Yet, given the persistent challenges with underlying inflation and the shrinking period to November, the likelihood of a delayed start to the easing cycle is increasing."
The economic slowdown was further highlighted by the first-quarter GDP data, which grew by a mere 0.1%. Over six months, the annualized GDP growth pace reduced to 0.8%. The RBA's current forecast places the average unemployment rate at 4.0% over the second quarter, consistent with recent predictions.
Aird noted, "Despite the bank’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment estimated at 4.3%, there remains significant uncertainty regarding these projections." Additionally, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock opined that the federal government’s $300 energy bill rebate is unlikely to either significantly mitigate or exacerbate inflation levels.
Aird supported this view, referencing earlier CBA economic predictions that the rebates might subtract two-thirds of a percentage point from the third quarter’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). "While this impact is noteworthy, the RBA is more focused on the core inflation dynamics, which excludes the effects of energy rebates," he remarked.
"Our perspective is that the mechanical reduction in headline inflation for Q3, due to rebates, will potentially lower short-term inflation expectations for households and businesses, helping stabilize wage expectations over 2024 and 2025," Aird added.
The RBA's accompanying statement to its board decision is expected to maintain a neutral stance. Despite the fluctuating dynamics and economic signals, Aird emphasized that predicting the exact timing for the commencement of an easing cycle remains inherently uncertain.
Published:Saturday, 15th Jun 2024
Source: Paige Estritori
Share this news item:
| RBA Highlights Housing Shortfall as Key Driver of Rental Crisis 17 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori In a fresh perspective on Australia's ongoing rental crisis, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has shed light on housing supply shortages as the primary cause, rather than the commonly blamed higher interest rates. - read more |
| Westpac Ends Cardless ATM Withdrawals: What This Means for Customers 11 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori Westpac Banking Corporation is making significant changes to its ATM services by eliminating the option for cardless cash withdrawals. This shift will require customers to carry a physical card to withdraw cash, starting at 8:00 PM AEST this Friday 11th October. - read more |
| Small Businesses in Australia: Navigating Turbulent Times 10 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori Amid the prevailing economic challenges, Australian small businesses are feeling the crunch as a wave of insolvencies underscores the depth of the issue. The construction and hospitality sectors are particularly vulnerable, with businesses seeking new strategies to stay afloat. - read more |
| Financial Worries Surge as Australians Face Economic Challenges 10 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori In a decade-long analysis, AMP’s recent Financial Wellness report uncovers a growing cloud of financial anxiety looming over Australian workers, with two-thirds expressing some level of financial distress. Particularly notable is the strain felt by those aged 55 to 59, where almost 40% report moderate to severe stress, highlighting growing concerns as retirement approaches. - read more |
| Australia Grapples with Prolonged Economic Slowdown 08 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori Australian citizens are currently navigating through an unprecedented economic phase, marked by the most prolonged recession per capita in the nation's history. This downturn has extended through six consecutive quarters of declining economic output, with a total of seven declines across the last eight quarters. - read more |
| Banks Under Fire for High Fees on Low-Income Accounts 07 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori A directive from Australian regulators is set to benefit nearly two million Australians, primarily from lower income groups, as major financial institutions were mandated to refund $28 million in excessive fees collected over the years. - read more |
| Calls Intensify for RBA to Reduce Rates and Rescue Retail 07 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori As the critical shopping season approaches, retail associations are urging the Reserve Bank to lower the cash rate in its upcoming November meeting. This call to action comes at a pivotal moment, with end-of-year festivities such as Black Friday and Christmas expected to significantly influence consumer spending. - read more |
| RBA Insights: The Dynamics Behind Rate Decisions 06 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to release its September board meeting minutes, which promise to explain the rationale behind the decision to maintain interest rates at their current level. Market watchers are keenly awaiting any indications of future rate changes. - read more |
| ANZ Settles $85 Million Dispute in Car Loan Commission Case 06 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori A significant settlement has been reached by financial powerhouse ANZ, totaling $85 million, concerning practices in its former car financing division. The settlement puts an end to allegations surrounding ANZ's controversial loan commission strategy, which purportedly exploited consumers purchasing vehicles. - read more |
| Debt Consolidation Strategies: How to Regain Control of Your Finances Debt can often feel like a formidable obstacle on the path to financial stability. Many individuals battle with various forms of debt, from high-interest credit cards to significant loans that seem to have an unyielding grip on their financial lives. Recognizing the challenges that debt presents is the critical first step towards regaining control of your personal finances. - read more
|
| How to Boost Your Credit Score Before Applying for a Personal Loan Your credit score is a numerical representation of your financial trustworthiness. Lenders use this score to assess the risk of lending you money. - read more
|
| The Psychological Impact of Debt: Strategies for Stress Relief and Better Fiscal Health It is no secret that the foundation of financial well-being is rooted in effective budgeting. In today's fast-paced world, where consumerism reigns, understanding how to manage one's finances has never been more crucial. Budgeting is not merely about restraining spending; it’s about creating a strategic plan that aligns with your financial goals and lifestyle. It allows individuals to gain control over their money, rather than letting their spending habits dictate their life course. - read more
|
| Bad Credit? No Problem! How to Get a Small Personal Loan Fast Bad credit, often resulting from late payments, high debt levels, or other financial missteps, can feel like a major roadblock. It typically means that your credit score falls below a certain threshold and may reflect a history of financial challenges. - read more
|
| Secured Versus Unsecured: Which Loan Option Aligns with Your Financial Goals? The landscape of personal financing is broad and varied, particularly in the Australian market where individuals have access to an array of loan options. When considering lending, the fundamental distinction to comprehend is that between 'secured' and 'unsecured' loans. - read more
|
| Bad Credit? Here's How You Can Still Get a Competitive Personal Loan In the landscape of modern finance, credit scores can often feel like gatekeepers to our goals, barring or granting access to essential funding when we need it most. The truth is, debt is as common as it is complex, threading through the lives of many with silent tenacity. Understanding its prevalence is the first step in navigating the choppy financial waters it can create. - read more
|
| How to Create a Budget That Really Works for You Budgeting is a foundational skill in the realm of personal finance, and as crucial as setting the sails is to a captain navigating through treacherous waters. Just as steady winds propel a ship towards its destination, a well-structured budget guides individuals towards their financial goals with confidence and control. - read more
|
| Creating a Financial Safety Net: Insurance and Savings Tips for Young Families Welcome to our blog! For young families, securing your future often requires careful planning and prudent financial decisions. One of the most crucial steps you can take in this journey is creating a financial safety net. - read more
|
| Budgeting Basics: How to Create a Stress-Free Financial Plan Budgeting is often seen as a restrictive practice, something that curtails fun and spontaneity. However, the truth is quite the contrary. Proper budgeting is a fundamental aspect of nurturing financial well-being. It's about understanding your income, controlling your spending, and ensuring that you prioritize saving and investing. A well-crafted budget can lead to a stress-free financial life by giving you a clear view of where your money is going and where you can potentially save. - read more
|
|
|
Bad Credit? No Problem! How to Get a Small Personal Loan Fast Bad credit, often resulting from late payments, high debt levels, or other financial missteps, can feel like a major roadblock. It typically means that your credit score falls below a certain threshold and may reflect a history of financial challenges. - read more
|
|
The Smart Borrower's Guide: Understanding Interest Rates on Small Loans When it comes to borrowing money, whether it's for personal use or for your small business, understanding interest rates is paramount. An interest rate, simply put, is the cost you pay to borrow money. It's typically expressed as a percentage of the principal amount you're loaned. This fee is how lenders earn on the funds they lend and is a key component you should consider before signing a loan agreement. - read more
|
|
|
Creating a Financial Safety Net: Insurance and Savings Tips for Young Families Welcome to our blog! For young families, securing your future often requires careful planning and prudent financial decisions. One of the most crucial steps you can take in this journey is creating a financial safety net. - read more
|
|
|
Bad Credit? Here's How You Can Still Get a Competitive Personal Loan In the landscape of modern finance, credit scores can often feel like gatekeepers to our goals, barring or granting access to essential funding when we need it most. The truth is, debt is as common as it is complex, threading through the lives of many with silent tenacity. Understanding its prevalence is the first step in navigating the choppy financial waters it can create. - read more
|
|
Taking Control: Steps to Improve Your Credit and Secure the Loan You Need Your credit score is much more than just a number; it's a reflection of your financial history and a determining factor in securing future loans. Understanding how bad credit can affect your loan applications is crucial in today's financial landscape. Bad credit can lead to frustration and disappointment when looking for a competitive loan offer, but don't lose heart—there are actionable steps you can take to improve your situation. - read more
|
|
|
How to Boost Your Credit Score Before Applying for a Personal Loan Your credit score is a numerical representation of your financial trustworthiness. Lenders use this score to assess the risk of lending you money. - read more
|
|
|
Secured Versus Unsecured: Which Loan Option Aligns with Your Financial Goals? The landscape of personal financing is broad and varied, particularly in the Australian market where individuals have access to an array of loan options. When considering lending, the fundamental distinction to comprehend is that between 'secured' and 'unsecured' loans. - read more
|
We respect your privacy.
An act of Parliament that governs the relationship that exists between borrowers and lenders.
Quick Links: | Small Loans | Student Loans | Finance Australia | Quick Finance | No Credit Check | Payday Loan | $5000 Loans